Lecture Title: Year-End Rush and Career Tournament: Theory and Evidence from Chinese Patent Applications

Speaker: Chen Gongping, Academia Sinica Institute of Economics (Taiwan, China)

Lecture Time: April 17, 2026, 14:30

Lecture Location: Room 440 of the School

Abstract:

This lecture introduces tournament theory to explain the "year-end rush" phenomenon—where organizational activities or investments surge universally at the end of periods. In multi-period tournaments, when interim performance is observable, trailing participants exert extraordinary effort in later stages to catch up with competitors. Since the final stage is unaffected by subsequent chasing, marginal returnsof effort peak at the period-end, resulting in effort surges. The model predicts monotonic increasing relationship between participants' interim performance ranking and their year-end rush intensity. Researchers test this prediction using Chinese city patent application data, demonstrating that growth targets only amplify this phenomenon. Supplementary evidence reveals patent agencies' key role in boosting patent surges.

Speaker Academic Profile:

Chen Gongping, Professor, Ph.D. in Economics from University of Rochester (USA) in 1993, Distinguished Research Fellow at Academia Sinica Institute of Economics (Taiwan, China). Research fields include microeconomics, labor economics, law and economics, and industrial economics. Papers published in international journals including *American Economic

Journal: Microeconomics*, International Economic Review, Rand Journal of Economics, Journal of Labor Economics, Journal of Economic Theory, Games and Economic Behavior, Journal of Urban Economics, Journal of Law, Economics and Organization.

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