Lecture Title: Piece-Rate Pay for Science

Speaker: Zhou Sifan, University of Science and Technology of China

Lecture Time: April 16, 2026, 15:30

Lecture Location: Room 440 of the School

Abstract:

This paper examines the effects of cash-per-publication policies on scientists' research outcomes. Researchers compile detailed data on publication-based cash incentives, bibliometric records, and research funding from four top-ranked research hospitals in China during 2009–2018. Using a modified regression discontinuity design, researchers exploit sharp changes in cash rewards at multiple journal impact factor thresholds. Findings show that increases in cash incentives lead to morepublications in lower-impact journals, but not in higher-impact journals, even though the reward schedule rises steeply with journal impact factor. Additionally, higher-ability scientists appear to respond more strongly to increases in incentives at the lower-impact thresholds. To interpret these findings, researchers develop a principal-agent model with both moral hazard and adverse selection. The model shows that under linear cash-per-publication policies, information frictions can induce high-ability scientists to mimic low-ability scientists by producing excessive numbers of low-impact articles. Reducing marginal payment for low-impact publications helps mitigate this distortion, but welfare losses remain. Specifically, welfare loss attributable to moral hazard declines with scientist ability,whereas welfare loss attributable to adverse selection rises. These results highlight how publication-based incentive schemes can distort research quality when researchers' ability and effort are unobservable.

Speaker Academic Profile:

Zhou Sifan, Special Associate Professor at University of Science and Technology of China School of Management, Ph.D. in Economics (University at Albany, SUNY), conducted postdoctoral research at Harvard University Center for Mathematical Sciences and Applications (CMSA), previously served as Associate Professor at Xiamen University Economics School. Research directions include technological innovation entrepreneurship, knowledge dissemination, science policy and high-skilled talent markets. Leads National Natural Science Foundation Youth Project and Ministry of

Education Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Research Project, research published in international academic journals including Management Science, Research Policy, Regional Science and Urban Economics.

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